election year stock market returns

 

Democrat-winning years actually tend to drag the returns down. Including 2020, the average return during Team Donkey years is 8.4%. When Team Elephant takes it, returns jump to 15.2%.

With this in mind, we can potentially, kinda-sorta predict who the next president will be based solely on S&P 500 performance.

Say the S&P jumps 10% before election day next year. That’d be a pretty good signal that Republicans are set for victory. Investor confidence would be speaking loudly in their favor.

If we put in a number something shy of that, say 6%, we might want to start banking on an incumbent win.