INVEST

 

 

  A massive amount of commercial real estate loans will come due in the next three months. Inflation is almost entirely being driven by housing and energy at this point. We face war in Ukraine and Israel. Sales of big-ticket items like cars cooled rapidly in the last few months. Credit conditions tightened from the April banking crisis. There’s a real possibility of a government shutdown. Going back to our feedback loop analogy, the estimated length for a rate hike to hit the economy in full is roughly 18 months. The first interest rate increases started in March 2022, roughly 20 months ago.

 

  Democrat-winning years actually tend to drag the returns down. Including 2020, the average return during Team Donkey years is 8.4%. When Team Elephant takes it, returns jump to 15.2%. With this in mind, we can potentially, kinda-sorta predict who the next president will be based solely on S&P 500 performance. Say the S&P jumps 10% before election day next year. That’d be a pretty good signal that Republicans are set for victory. Investor confidence would be speaking loudly in their favor. If we put in a number something shy of that, say 6%, we might want to start banking on an incumbent win.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Money supply dropping

 

  Of the other precious metals, platinum was up 2.9% while palladium fell 3.2%.   Oil was the big winner, along with the commodity ETF. Gold YTD: Steady as She Goes To the surprise of some investors, gold is up 3.2% year-to-date. You’ll notice that both gold and the US dollar are up on the year. This shows a rising dollar is not always negative for gold and that at times they can both rise together.

 

 

 

 

 

  Five Risks as Governments Roll Out Digital Currencies CBDCs will give central banks and governments almost unbreakable financial control over your life. The implications are limitless. For example: Tax Enforcement.  Enforcing taxes is expensive for the government. In the U.S., it eats up around 10% of all taxes collected. With an all-digital dollar, the government could use complex algorithms to tax any transaction in real time… and at little or no extra cost. More Taxes.  As the financial elite catch on to the above, you can count on more taxes. That could be anything from federal taxes on sugary foods and drinks, to alcohol consumption taxes, to tourist taxes. Interest Rates.  Just like the savings in your bank account, your digital dollars would have to pay interest. Higher Inflation.  As I’ve written  previously , an all-digital dollar would enable the Fed to conjure even more money out of thin air. That’s because it’s easier – and faster – to create a CBDC electronically than a

  Also, note how the S&P performed the last two times the RSI traded at depressed levels. Let’s cross fingers for an RSI reversal beginning this week, followed by the bullishness that Luke and Louis are calling for.

  TASTING NOTES: NOSE Sweet and savoury, fresh green & red apples, confectionary sweetness, hints of cashew nut, notes of salt brine and savoury accentuated without losing freshness. Very nice aromatic persistence. TASTE To taste, apple and white peach touch the senses first. A beautifully balanced Scotch of sweet and savoury flavours, with notes of blood oranges and red berries, a touch of smoked meat, warming salt and pepper with a long, sweet fruit finish. FINISH The liquid has a long, sweet fruit finish of sweet wood spice. JOHNNIE WALKER BLUE LABEL ELUSIVE UMAMI 70cl | 43% ABV Elusive Umami is the Blue Label's pioneering expression that ignites the 5th sense and the worlds most enigmatic taste, umami: Bold, intense and multi dimensional. Elusive Umami is the first release in a series that explores the electric edges of Blue Label whisky, bringing together innovative techniques, global inspirations and creative vanguards together in the spirit of progress.